Research released today, Thursday, 21 November 2024, by Professor Smart Sarpong, Associate Professor of Statistics at the Kumasi Technical University, indicates that the Vice President and Presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, is leading with 49.1% in the upcoming 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.
Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s closest contender, the NDC’s John Mahama has 45.8% of the vote while Nana Kwame Bediako is likely to secure 2.2%. Mr John Alan John Kyeremateng on the other hand is predicted to place 4th by securing just 1.2% of the vote
The comprehensive survey, conducted across 4,272 communities in all 276 constituencies and involving 99,355 respondents, highlights Dr Bawumia’s clear edge in critical regions such as Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western.
While Mahama maintains substantial backing in the other nine regions, his support is insufficient to close the gap. In addition to predicting a strong presidential outcome for Bawumia, the poll also forecasts a parliamentary majority for the NPP.
Professor Sarpong’s data indicates that the NPP could secure at least 148 seats in Parliament, with 128 considered “safe.” The NDC is projected to hold 92 safe seats, while 56 constituencies remain highly competitive.
These battleground seats are expected to split evenly between the two major parties, cementing the NPP’s parliamentary majority.
Professor Sarpong, whose accurate predictions in the 2020 elections earned him national recognition, notes that Bawumia’s leadership and the NPP’s political strategies have resonated strongly with voters.
His analysis suggests that the party is poised for both a decisive presidential victory and significant gains in Parliament.
With sixteen (16) days to election day, the poll underscores growing voter confidence in the NPP, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election outcome.
Presidential elections
In his analysis of his findings as far as the presidential elections are concerned, Professor Sarpong pointed out that “as of 16 November 2024 (4 weeks to elections), NPP’s Dr Mahamudu Bawumia was in a 49.1% lead, NDC’s Mr John Mahama coming next with 45.8%, followed by Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2%, and Mr. John Allan Kyeremateng with 1.2%.
“All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes. It is clear from this report that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.
“Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions are the leading regions powering the NPPs with 49.1% lead. Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions are the leading regions powering the NDC’s 45.8%,’ Professor Sarpong pointed out.
“In the next 2 weeks to December 7th, political parties should guard against reverse invasion by working hard to consolidate all gains made in leading regions while seeking to improve in other regions. If all sleeping party agents and supporters should arise and get involved, there can be a 1-touch victory and spare the nation the stress of organizing a second round of elections,” Professor Smart Sarpong further indicated.
Parliamentary race
As of 16 November 2024 (4 weeks before the elections), Professor Smart Sarpong notes in his research work that “NPPs lead in Parliamentary safe seats with 128 safe seats, followed by the NDC’s with 92 safe seats. The remaining 56 constituencies are up for a take with NPP and NDC likely to win equal share.
“It is clear from this report that by the close of elections 2024, NPP shall secure NOT LESS THAN 148 SEATS in parliament. There were 6 competitive independent candidates in Sunyani East, Asanti Akyem Central, Asante Akyem North, La-Dade Kotopong, Suhum, and Agona West. None of the 6 competitive independent candidates secured enough votes to earn them the pass mark.
“All 276 constituency seats are winnable, but more energy is required in the 56 tight constituencies for parties who wish to win. List of the 56 and their likely winning party will be shared Only upon request via my email,” Professor Smart Sarpong further noted.
