COPEC predicts 6–9% hike in Petrol and Diesel prices

Fuel prices at the pump are projected to increase by between 6% and 9% during the second pricing window of July 2025, according to market analysis conducted by the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC).

The mean retail price of petroleum products is expected to rise by an average of 8% from current levels when the new pricing window begins on Wednesday, July 16, 2025.

Expected Price Adjustments:

• Petrol is projected to rise by 6.47%, moving from the current average of GHS11.59 per litre.
• Diesel is anticipated to see the steepest increase, going up by 9.30% from its current mean of GHS12.97 per litre.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), however, is expected to record a marginal drop of 0.45% per kilogram.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, July 15, COPEC explained that the projections are based on current market indicators and assume there will be no major changes in global Free-On-Board (FOB) petroleum prices or the cedi-dollar exchange rate in the short term.

The projected increases come despite a 4.89% drop in crude oil prices, from $74.43 to $70.79 per barrel, and a 0.47% depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi, from GHS10.5288 to GHS10.5785 per dollar.

According to COPEC, the expected price hikes are largely being driven by the implementation of a GHS1 Energy Sector shortfall and debt repayment levy, recently introduced by the Ministry of Energy.

The Chamber cautioned that the final pump prices could vary within a ±5% margin of the estimates, depending on actual market movements.

The new prices will officially take effect from Wednesday, July 16, 2025.

Read below the statement by COPEC

CHAMBER OF PETROLEUM CONSUMERS – (COPEC)
ACCRA

14 July 2025

* FUEL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP 6%-9% IN THE SECOND PRICING WINDOW OF JULY 2025*

The current mean fuel price is expected to go up by about 8% in the next Pricing Window

Analysis of Projection

Barring any unforeseen major changes in global Petroleum FOB prices and the Dollar: Cedi exchange rates, indications across the downstream petroleum market are that, in the next window beginning 16 July 2025,

i. the mean pump retail price of Petrol is expected to go up by 6.47% of the current mean price of GHS11.59/L
ii. The mean price of diesel is also expected to go up by 9.30% of the current mean price of GHS12.97/L and
iii. Mean LPG price per kg is also to go down by about -0.45%.

Acknowledging that, the Crude price has gone down by -4.89% from $74.43/barrel to $70.79/barrel and that the Cedi has slightly depreciated relatively to the Dollar from an average rate of $1:GHS10.5288 to $1:GHS10.5785 (-0.4720%), coupled with the introduction of the Energy Sector shortfall and debt repayment levy of GHS1 by the Ministry of Energy, the following will constitute the projected mean retail prices for Petroleum products to within ±5% of COPEC’s projection starting from 16 July 2025.

Petrol .. GHS12.34/L
Diesel .. GHS14.18/L
The Mean Price for Petrol and Diesel..GHS13.26/L

LPG.. GHS11.55/kg

Thus, a 14.5 kg of LPG cylinder would be expected to be sold at GHS167.43 within the next window.

Below are the detailed descriptions.

1. PETROL
Though the international FOB price of petrol has decreased from $740.93/MT to $716.30/MT (-3.32%), the retail price works up to GHS12.34/L

Thus, the retail price of Petrol is expected to increase by 6.47% of the current mean pump retail price of GHS11.59/L, to close selling between GHS11.72/L and GHS12.96 /L , within ±5% range of COPEC’s projected figure of GHS12.34/L.

2. DIESEL
In the same manner, with the International FOB price of diesel increasing from $722.48/MT to $743.07/MT (2.85%), the projected mean retail pump price for the next window shall be GHS14.18/L

Diesel is therefore expected to increase in price by about 9.30% of the current mean pump retail price of GHS12.97/L to be selling between GHS13.47/L and GHS14.89/L , within ±5% range of COPEC’s projected figure of GHS14.18/L.

3.0 Mean Price of Petrol and Diesel
The mean price of petrol and diesel for the coming window per available parameters shall be GHS13.26/L . The mean pump price is therefore expected to increase by 7.96% over the current mean price of GHS12.28/L to be be selling between GHS12.60/L and GHS13.92/L, within ±5% of COPEC’s projected mean price of GHS13.26/L.

4. LPG
With the international FOB price of LPG decreasing from $492.70/MT to $465.52/MT (-5.41%), the projected retail price of LPG is expected to be on the average at GHS11.55/kg.

Thus, within ±5% error, LPG is expected to be selling between GHS10.97/kg and GHS12.12/ kg.

Remarks:
1. COPEC is very much appreciative of the fairly stable Dollar:Cedi exchange rate, which is being enjoyed in the fuel industry.

* It is anticipated that the Dollar: Cedi exchange rate will continue to improve for the benefit of the general consumers of petroleum products.

2. COPEC maintains that, Government must do all it can to reduce taxes on LPG or to subsidize the price of LPG to promote and encourage its nationwide accessibility and usage which will eventually help save the environment from further degradation by the use of firewoods.

3. Currently, the total taxes and levies on retail prices of Petrol and Diesel is about 26.55%.

* COPEC is requesting for the reduction of tax rates or to take off some of the fuel taxes to lessen the burden on consumers.

* Alternatively, a formula can be adopted to vary the total levies with change in the Dollar:Cedi rate.

4. We further appeal to the government not to relent in getting Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) back on stream in order to avoid or reduce the importation of finished products, with possible associated fuel contamination.

5. COPEC wishes to appeal to the OMCs not to unduly increase fuel prices with the introduction of the new e-levy against the interest of consumers in the next window.

Duncan Amoah.
Executive Secretary.